Coconut prices shoot up in south amid Onam, Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations

PANAJI/ KOCHI: As foam-tipped waves licked Goa's Miramar beach, a tourist reached for a tender coconut to beat the afternoon blaze. "Rs 90," said the vendor. The tourist blinked. "For one? Wasn't it Rs 40 last year?" Once an easy indulgence, the humble coconut has turned into a luxury in much of India's south, with prices up from Rs 15-25 just two years ago to anywhere between Rs 80 and Rs 100 now.

In Kerala, the crisis has a phrase: "Moongan irunna naayudey thalayil thenga veenu." A coconut falling on the head of a dog that was already looking for an excuse to cry. Trouble piling onto trouble.

Today's shortage can be traced to the pandemic years. Tender coconut sales collapsed in 2020-21 as supply chains froze, leading to over-mature nuts and a glut by 2022-23, crashing prices and discouraging care for trees. "Farmers didn't replant after the 2023 crash. Now yields have dropped and recovery takes years," said farmer-producer group member Sunil Cyriac. Lost time cannot be reclaimed in a single season. Tall trees need five to eight years to bear fruit. Shorter hybrids, three.
Climatic swings - heavy rain in 2022, drought in 2023, scorching heat in 2024-25 - left plantations reeling in Karnataka. Pests damaged 30% of output in Tumakuru, Mandya, Hassan, Chikkamagaluru and Chitradurga. Cyclonic damage and pest attacks hit 25% of plantations in Andhra Pradesh. In TN, root wilt disease and whitefly infestation wiped out 40% of yields in Krishnagiri and Tirunelveli.

Kerala faced leaf rot disease in central and northern zones and mid-whorl yellowing in south, leading to abnormal nut fall and tree death. Rhinoceros beetles and red palm weevils added to the devastation.

The festival season - Onam in Kerala, Ganesh Chaturthi nationwide - sent the market into a spiral. Copra, oil and fresh nut prices have soared as shortages deepen.

Panaji market vendor Sulagna Gaunekar blamed high labour and transport costs. Tourism added pressure, with tender coconuts overharvested for quick profits, cutting into next year's yield. Goa's agriculture director Sandeep Fol Dessai cited a mix of pests, fungal infections and "monkey menace". He said as farmers migrated to cities, leaving plantations unattended, "Monkeys destroyed crops."

Production for 2024-25 stood at 1,508 lakh nuts - far short of demand. Goa Horticulture Corporation rushed in 75,000 coconuts from Karnataka, selling at a subsidised Rs 40-45. They sold out in hours.

Officials said the crisis was global. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Sri Lanka also saw a drop in output. "Price fluctuation had related factors - crop neglect and climate variation," said Coconut Development Board marketing director Deepthy Nair.

Coconut oil prices reflected the strain - Rs 4,23,000 per metric tonne in India, nearly triple in two years, according to a Reuters report. Worldwide production flatlined at 3.67 million tonnes in 2024-25, the US agriculture dept reported.

At beaches, markets and temples, coconuts now carry the weight of climate change, fungus, beetles, neglect and broken supply chains - all packed into a single hard shell. India remains the world's largest producer, with an estimated 15 million metric tonnes for 2024-25, according to Coconut Development Board. Karnataka leads with 28.5% of output, followed by Kerala, TN and Andhra Pradesh.